Hong Kong consumer confidence has increased; largest increase in the sub-index of Property Purchases

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the cross-strait region, Hong Kong and Macau for the fourth quarter of 2021 was announced on 8 January 2022. The overall CCI for Hong Kong is 70.6, up 14.1% quarter on quarter (QoQ), and up 10.1% year on year (YoY). However, all the figures are still lower than 84, showing that Hong Kong consumers lack confidence regarding these aspects.

Largest increases in consumer confidence 
in Property Purchases and Stock Investments

The largest increases were observed in confidence levels in two aspects: Property Purchases and Stock Investments.

Among the two aspects, the overall sub-index of Hong Kong people towards Property Purchases is 63.9 (Table 1). It is a huge increase of 27.8% compared with the last quarter, and the largest increase among all the sub-indices compared with the previous quarter. However, it is still the aspect in which Hong Kong consumers have the lowest confidence. The index experiences a slight YoY increase of 1.6%. The result for the present property purchases is 60.9 (Table 2), which is a huge increase of 20.6% when compared with the last quarter. Citizens’ confidence in property purchases for the coming three months is 65.9 (Table 2), with a huge increase of 32.6% compared with the last quarter. However, the absolute value of the future sub-index is still low and this indicates that local consumers still lack confidence in this aspect.

The sub-index for Stock Investments is 68.1 (Table 1), with a YoY increase of 9% and a huge increase of 27.5% when compared with the previous quarter. The result for the present situation is 68 (Table 2), with a huge increase of 30.5% when compared with the previous quarter. The confidence level for the coming three months is 68.2 (Table 2), increasing considerably by 25.8% compared to the former quarter. This indicates that consumers’ confidence level in this aspect has increased. However, the absolute value of the future sub-index is low and this indicates that local consumers still lack confidence in this aspect.

Increases in consumer confidence in other four main aspects

The overall Commodity Prices sub-index is 66.9 (Table 1), a slight YoY decrease of 0.7% but it shows a significant increase of 12.4% when compared to the last quarter, showing a slight increase in citizens’ confidence. 

The present sub-index of commodity prices is 67.7 (Table 2), with a significant increase of 14.2% when compared with the former quarter. The result for the coming three months is 66.4 (Table 2), significantly increasing by 11.2% from the last quarter. This indicates that Hong Kong consumers’ confidence level in this aspect has increased but it is still weak.

The sub-index of Standard of Living measures at 83.4 (Table 1). It experiences a significant YoY increase of 12.4%, significantly increasing by 11.1% from the previous quarter. It is still the most confident aspect of Hong Kong people. The result for the present situation is 86.3 (Table 2), significantly increasing by 14.3% compared with the last quarter. Their confidence index in living standard for the coming three months is 81.4 (Table 2), increasing by 8.7% when compared with the last quarter. The absolute value of the future sub-index is not high, which indicates that local consumers’ confidence has not recovered yet.

The sub-index of Hong Kong residents towards Economic Development is 71.6 (Table 1), with a huge YoY increase of 21.6%. Compared with the previous quarter, consumers’ confidence in Economic Development increases by 7.2%. The result for the present economic situation is 59.7 (Table 2), with a significant increase of 13.3% compared to the last quarter in this aspect. The result for economic confidence in the coming three months is 79.5 (Table 2), with an increase of 4.3% compared with the previous quarter. The absolute value of the sub-index is not high, which demonstrates that Hong Kong consumers’ confidence has not recovered yet.

The sub-index of Hong Kong people towards Employment is 70 (Table 1), a significant YoY increase of 18.8% and an increase of 5.1% compared with the result of last quarter. The result for present employment situation is 58.1 (Table 2), increasing by 9.8% on the previous quarter. The index for employment confidence in the coming three months is 77.9 (Table 2), with an increase of 2.9% when compared with the previous quarter. The absolute value of the sub-index is not high, showing that the consumers’ confidence has not recovered yet.

The overall result significantly increases compared with the result of the last quarter due to the increase in consumers' confidence in Property Purchases, Stock Investments, Commodity Prices, Standard of Living, Economic Development and Employment. Especially, the sub-indices of Property Purchases and Stock Investments experience a huge increase of almost 30%. However, the absolute values of all sub-indices are still lower than 84, which indicates that Hong Kong consumers’ confidence has not recovered yet. The situation is possibly caused by the continuing pandemic.
 
Media enquiries:

Dr Geoffrey Tso Kwok-fai
Associate Professor and Director of the Statistical Consulting Unit
Department of Management Sciences            
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3442 8568 or (852) 9020 9996

Mr Hu Yijian
Research assistant 
Department of Management Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3442 8657 or (852) 6990 6084
 
Appendix A: Notes for Data Collection
City University of Hong Kong is responsible for the data collection for the captioned investigation. The survey for the CCI in fourth quarter of 2021 was conducted by telephone interview from 15 to 25 December 2021. A random sampling procedure was adopted, and 1,004 interviews were conducted with local residents aged 18 or above. The survey results have a 95% confidence level, and the sampling error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

Appendix B: Notes for the Chinese Consumer Confidence Index
The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index was launched in the first quarter of 2009 and has been released on a quarterly basis since then. The overall consumer confidence score is an integrated index, measuring consumer sentiment about economic development, employment, commodity prices, standard of living, property purchases and stock investments. It reflects the confidence level of consumers in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. The index is jointly compiled by Capital University of Economics and Business, Central University of Finance and Economics, City University of Hong Kong, Macau University of Science and Technology, and Taipei Medical University.

The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index uses a scale of 0 to 200, with 0 representing “no confidence” and 200 representing “complete confidence”. If the index is below 100, it suggests consumers “lack confidence”, while if it is above 100, it suggests “relative confidence”.
 

Appendix C: Tables

Table 1. Results of the CCI index (Overall*)

*The overall index is a weighted index that combines the present and expected CCI.

Table 2. Results of the CCI (Present and Expected#)

#Expected results in the next three months