Hong Kong consumer confidence has increased with the largest increase in the sub-index of Employment
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the cross-strait region, Hong Kong and Macau for the second quarter of 2021 was announced on 8 July 2021.The overall CCI for Hong Kong is 65.7, up 5.3% quarter on quarter, but slightly down 0.8% year on year (YoY). Almost all the sub-indices recorded an increase during this quarter, with the largest increase of about 16% in the sub-index of Employment. However, all the figures are lower than 78, showing that Hong Kong consumers have not recovered their confidence regarding these aspects.
Increases in consumer confidence in five main aspects
There were increases in confidence levels in five main aspects: Employment, Economic Development, Stock Investments, Property Purchases and Standard of Living.
Among these five aspects, the overall sub-index of Hong Kong people towards employment is 67.8 (Table 1), a YoY increase of 12.4% and a significant increase of 16.7% compared with the result of last quarter. The result for the present employment situation is 48.5 (Table 2), increasing significantly by 12.5% on the previous quarter; the index for employment confidence in the coming three months is 80.7 (Table 2), with a significant increase of 18.5% when compared with the previous quarter. However, the absolute value of the future sub-index is not high, which demonstrate that the locals’ confidence level in Employment is still weak.
The sub-index of Hong Kong residents towards Economic Development is 69.7 (Table 1), with a YoY increase of 14.1%. Compared with the previous quarter, citizens’ confidence in Economic Development also increases significantly by 14.4%. The result for the present economic situation is 51.5 (Table 2), with an increase of 6% compared to the last quarter in this aspect; the result for the economic confidence in the coming three months is 81.9 (Table 2), with a significant increase of 18.5% compared with the previous quarter. This indicates that Hong Kong residents’ confidence has not recovered yet.
The sub-index for Stock Investments is 66.7 (Table 1), with a YoY increase of 2.6% and an increase of 9.7 % when compared with the previous quarter. The result for the present situation is 63.6 (Table 2), increasing by 10% from the previous quarter. The confidence level for the coming three months is 68.8 (Table 2), increasing by 9.6% compared to the former quarter. This indicates that consumers’ confidence level in this aspect has increased. The absolute value of the future sub-index is low, showing that the Hong Kong residents still lack confidence in this aspect.
The overall sub-index of Property Purchases measures at 55 (Table 1). It is the aspect in which Hong Kong consumers have the lowest confidence. The index experiences a YoY decrease of 6.3% and an increase of 4.4% compared with the last quarter. The result for current property purchases is 53.9 (Table 2), and slightly increases by 2.7% when compared with the last quarter; citizens’ confidence in property purchases for the coming three months is 55.7(Table 2), increasing by 5.5% from the last quarter. The absolute value of the future sub-index is still low, which demonstrates a lack of confidence in property purchases among Hong Kong people.
The sub-index of Standard of Living measures at 77.5 (Table 1). It experiences a YoY decrease of 5.3% but has increased slightly by 1.2% from the previous quarter. It is still the most confident aspect of Hong Kong residents. The result for the current situation is 80 (Table 2), slightly decreasing by 2% compared with the last quarter. Their confidence index for the coming three months is 75.9 (Table 2), increasing by 3.7% when compared with the last quarter. The absolute value of the future sub-index is low, indicating that local consumers are still worried about this aspect.
Significant decrease in consumer confidence in the Commodity Prices
The overall commodity prices sub-index is 57.1 (Table 1), a significant YoY decrease of 18.5% and a decrease of 12.6% when compared to the last quarter. The current sub-index of commodity prices is 56.4 (Table 2), with a decrease of 9.9% when compared with the former quarter; the result for the coming three months is 57.6 (Table 2), significantly decreasing by 14.2% from the last quarter. This indicates that Hong Kong consumers’ confidence level in this aspect has decreased and it is still weak.
The overall result increases compared with the result of the last quarter, due to the increase of consumers' confidence in some respects, including Employment, Economic Development, Stock Investments, Property Purchases and Standard of Living. Especially, the sub- indices for Employment and Economic Development have significantly increased by more than 14%. However, the absolute values of the sub-indices are low and this indicates that Hong Kong consumers’ confidence level is still very low, especially for property purchase in the future. This is possibly caused by the on-going pandemic situation over the past few months.
Media enquiries:
Dr Geoffrey Tso Kwok-fai
Associate Head, Associate Professor and Director of the Statistical Consulting Unit
Department of Management Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3442 8568 or (852) 9020 9996
Mr Hu Yijian
Research assistant
Department of Management Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3442 8657 or (852) 6990 6084
Appendix A: Notes for Data Collection
City University of Hong Kong is responsible for the data collection for the captioned investigation. The survey for the CCI in second quarter of 2021 was conducted by telephone interview from 1 to 20 June 2021. A random sampling procedure was adopted, and 1,005 interviews were conducted with local residents aged 18 or above. The survey results have a 95% confidence level, and the sampling error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
Appendix B: Notes for the Chinese Consumer Confidence Index
The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index was launched in the first quarter of 2009 and has been released on a quarterly basis since then. The overall consumer confidence score is an integrated index, measuring consumer sentiment about economic development, employment, commodity prices, standard of living, property purchases and stock investments. It reflects the confidence level of consumers in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. The index is jointly compiled by Capital University of Economics and Business, Central University of Finance and Economics, City University of Hong Kong, Macau University of Science and Technology, and Taipei Medical University.
The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index uses a scale of 0 to 200, with 0 representing “no confidence” and 200 representing “complete confidence”. If the index is below 100, it suggests consumers “lack confidence”, while if it is above 100, it suggests “relative confidence”.
Appendix C: Tables
