Consumer confidence index of the cross-strait region, Hong Kong and Macau Increases in Mainland and Taiwan but slightly drops in Macau; Hong Kong slightly increases but the confidence is still insufficient
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The consumer confidence index of cross-strait and Hong Kong and Macau for the 1st quarter of 2019 was announced in Macau on April 8, 2019. It is shown that the results of consumer confidence index in Mainland and Taiwan are 104.18 and 86.5, with the increase of 4.8% and 1.8% respectively compared to the last quarter. The result of Macau is 90.38, declines by 1.1% compared with the previous quarter. The Hong Kong Consumer Confidence Index is 81.0, with a slight increase of 0.4% and a decrease of 6.7% compared with the previous quarter and the same quarter in last year respectively, still remains at a relatively low level. All sub-indices are lower than 100, showing that Hong Kong consumers still lack confidence.
Increased confidence in economic development
The sub-index of Hong Kong people towards the economic development is 91.5, with a year-on- year (YOY) decrease of 13.4% and an increase of 3.9% when compared with the previous quarter, showing that consumers’ confidence in economic development has increased from the previous quarter. The result for present economic situation is 94.3, the same with the sub-index of current economic development in the last quarter. The result for the economic confidence in the coming three months is 89.6, with a considerable increase of 6.8% compared with the previous quarter.
Significantly dropped confidence in property purchases
An overall sub-index of 57.4 shows that property purchases is still the aspect that Hong Kong people have the lowest confidence. The result of this aspect has changed a lot in the past one year – it experiences a dramatic YOY improvement of 47.1% but a moderate decline of 7.7% compared with the last quarter. The results for current and future property purchases are 54.2 and 59.5, decrease by 6.4% and 8.5% respectively when compared to former quarter, demonstrating that Hong Kong citizens’ confidence to purchase properties has decreased compared to the last quarter of 2018.
Steady confidence in commodity prices and employment
The overall index for commodity prices is 69.7, whether it is compared with the last quarter or the same quarter of last year, consumers’ confidence in this aspect remain unfluctuating. The current and future index of commodity prices are 68.3 and 70.6 respectively, with no significant variety when compared with the former quarter. This indicates that Hong Kong people believe commodity prices will not have considerable fluctuation in short term period.
The sub-index of Hong Kong people towards employment is 91.9, a YOY decline of 16.9% and basically the same with the result of last quarter. The result for present employment situation is 95.4, declines by 3.7 % on the previous quarter. The index for employment confidence in the coming three months is 89.6, with an improvement of 4.6% when compared with the previous quarter. This indicates that people’s confidence in employment becomes weaker but the expectation for the employment situation in coming three months has improved.
Slightly increased confidence in living standard and stock investments
With sub-index measures at 95.9, the living standard remains as the most confidence aspect of Hong Kong people. The overall result experiences a dramatic YOY drop of 13.4% and has improved by 1.9% from the previous quarter. The result for the current situation is 106.2, increases by 3.6% compared with the last quarter. Their confidence in the coming three months is 89.0, similar to the last quarter. This indicates that compared to the former quarter, locals’ confidence towards living standard has slightly increased.
The sub-index for stock investment is 79.8, with a YOY decrease of 7.1% and a rise of 1.9 % when compared with the previous quarter. The results for the present and future stock investments are 78.5 and 80.7 respectively, both of which increase by 1.9% from the previous quarter. Even though the result demonstrates still lack of confidence from the absolute value point of view, the situation has been improved than that in the last quarter.
The overall result is basically the same as the result of last quarter, reflecting that the confidence of Hong Kong consumers is still not sufficient. There is a growth in Hong Kong consumers’ confidence in economic development but people are still most worried about commodity prices and property purchases, and their confidence in property purchases is lower when compared to the last quarter.
Dr. Geoffrey TSO Kwok-fai
Associate Head &Associate Professor &Director of the Statistical Consulting Unit
Department of Management Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: 852-3442 8568 & 852-9020 9996
Ms. CAO Yiran
Department of Management Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: 852-3442 8657 & 852-6350 2904
Appendix A: Notes for Data Collection
City University of Hong Kong is responsible for the data collection for the captioned investigation. The survey for the CCI in first quarter of 2019 was conducted by telephone interview from 5th March, 2019 to 28th March, 2019. By adopting a random sampling procedure, 1,011 interviews were conducted with local residents aged 18 or above. With the 95% confidence level, the sampling error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points in this study.
Appendix B: Notes for the Chinese Consumer Confidence Index
The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index was launched in the 1st quarter of 2009 and release on a quarter basis afterwards. The overall consumer confidence score is an integrated index measuring consumer sentiment towards economic development, employment, commodity prices, living standards, property purchases and stock investments. It reflects the confidence level of consumers in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. The index is jointly compiled by Capital University of Economics and Business, Central University of Finance and Economics, City University of Hong Kong, Macau University of Science and Technology and Taipei Medical University.
The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index uses a scale of 0 to 200, with 0 representing “no confidence” and 200 representing “complete confidence”. Indexes below 100 suggest consumers “lack confidence”, while those above suggest “relative confidence”.
Appendix C: Tables