Hong Kong consumer confidence has fallen; largest decrease seen in stock investments sub-index

The Statistical Consulting Unit of the Department of Management Sciences at City University of Hong Kong (CityU) announced today (10 October) the latest result for the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the cross-strait region, Hong Kong and Macau. The result for the third quarter of 2021 shows that the overall CCI for Hong Kong is 61.9, down 5.8% quarter on quarter (QoQ), but up 7.8% year on year (YoY). All the sub-indices are lower than 76, revealing that Hong Kong consumers’ lack of confidence.

Decrease in consumer confidence across five main domains

There were decreases in confidence levels in five aspects: Stock Investments, Property Purchases, Economic Development, Living Standards, and Employment.

Among these domains, the sub-index for Stock Investments is 53.4 (Table 1), with a slight YoY increase of 0.6% but a huge decrease of 19.9% when compared with the previous quarter. The previous result was 52.1 (Table 2), decreasing significantly by 18.1% from the previous quarter, The confidence level for the coming three months is 54.2 (Table 2), decreasing considerably by 21.2% compared to the former quarter. Given that the absolute value of the future sub-index is low, it seems local consumers still lack confidence in Stock Investments.

The overall sub-index for Property Purchases measures at 50 (Table 1), indicating that this is the area that Hong Kong consumers have the lowest confidence in. The index experienced a YoY increase of 7.5% but a decrease of 9.1% compared with the previous quarter. The result for current property purchases was 50.5 (Table 2), decreasing by 6.3% when compared with the last quarter. Citizens’ confidence in property purchases for the coming three months is 49.7 (Table 2), significantly decreasing by 10.8% from the last quarter, once again highlight residents’ lack of confidence.

The sub-index for Economic Development is 66.8 (Table 1), with a significant YoY increase of 13.8%. Compared with the previous quarter, however, citizens’ confidence in the Economic Development decreased significantly by 4.2%. The result for the present economic situation is 52.7 (Table 2), with an increase of 2.3% compared to the last quarter. The result for economic confidence in the coming three months is 76.2 (Table 2), representing a decrease of 7% compared with the previous quarter. That the absolute value of the sub-index is not high demonstrates that Hong Kong consumer confidence has not recovered yet.

The sub-index for Living Standards measures at 75.1 (Table 1), which is a YoY increase of 5.8%. Although it has decreased by 3.1% from the previous quarter, it is still the domain that Hong Kong people are most confident about. The result for the current situation is 75.5 (Table 2), decreasing by 5.6% compared with the last quarter. The confidence index in living standard for the coming three months is 74.9 (Table 2), decreasing by 1.3% when compared with the last quarter. The absolute value of the future sub-index is low, spotlighting local consumers’ concerns.

The sub-index for Employment is 66.6 (Table 1), a huge YoY increase of 25.9% but a drop of 1.8% compared with the result from the last quarter. The result for the present employment situation is 52.9 (Table 2), increasing by 9.1% on the previous quarter. Although the index for employment confidence in the coming three months is 75.7 (Table 2), there’s drop of 6.2% when compared with the previous quarter. The absolute value of the sub-index is not high, showing that the consumer confidence has not recovered yet.

An increase in consumer confidence in commodity prices

The overall Commodity Prices sub-index is 59.5 (Table 1), a YoY decrease of 4%, but an increase of 4.2% when compared to the last quarter. The current sub-index of Commodity Prices is 59.3 (Table 2), with an increase of 5.1% when compared with the former quarter. The result for the coming three months is 59.7 (Table 2), increasing by 3.6% from the last quarter. However, despite the increase in the sub-index for commodity prices, consumer confidence remains weak.

Overall, compared with the results from the last quarter, consumer confidence has decreased in Stock Investments, Property Purchases, Economic Development, Living Standards and Employment. The sub-index for Stock Investment has decreased considerably, by almost 20%. However, the sub-index for Commodity Prices has increased by 4.2%, making it the only aspect that has improved in this quarter. The absolute value of the index is low, strongly suggesting that Hong Kong consumer confidence level is still very low, possibly because of the pandemic.

 

Media enquiries:

Dr Geoffrey Tso Kwok-fai
Associate Professor and Director of the Statistical Consulting Unit
Department of Management Sciences           
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3442 8568 or (852) 9020 9996

Mr Hu Yijian
Research assistant
Department of Management Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3442 8657 or (852) 6990 6084

 

 

Appendix A: Notes for Data Collection

The Department of Management Sciences at City University of Hong Kong is responsible for the data collection for the captioned investigation. The survey for the CCI in the third quarter of 2021 was conducted by telephone interview from 1 to 23 September 2021. A random sampling procedure was adopted, and 1,005 interviews were conducted with local residents aged 18 or above. The survey results have a 95% confidence level, and the sampling error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

 

Appendix B: Notes for the Chinese Consumer Confidence Index

The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index has been released on a quarterly basis since its launch in the first quarter of 2009. The overall consumer confidence score is an integrated index measuring consumer sentiment about economic development, employment, commodity prices, standard of living, property purchases and stock investments. It reflects the confidence level of consumers in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. The index is jointly compiled by Capital University of Economics and Business, Central University of Finance and Economics, City University of Hong Kong, Macau University of Science and Technology, and Taipei Medical University.

The Chinese Consumer Confidence Index uses a scale of 0 to 200, with 0 representing “no confidence” and 200 representing “complete confidence”. If the index is below 100, it suggests consumers “lack confidence”, while if it is above 100, it suggests “relative confidence”.

 

Appendix C: Tables

Table 1. Results of the CCI index (Overall*)

 

 Table 2. Results of the CCI (Present and Expected#)