Professor Dirk Pfeiffer, Chow Tak Fung Chair Professor of One Health and Director of the Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy Advice at City University of Hong Kong (CityUHK), along with a team of interdisciplinary scientists from the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Health Poultry Hub, has developed a ground breaking computer tool called EPINEST(EPIdemic Network Simulation in poultry Transportation systems). An agent-based modelling framework designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. This tool enables the mapping and tracking of avian influenza virus spread across time and space, providing valuable insights into infectious disease threats associated with global food systems. The intensification of livestock farming and the complexity of food systems have increased the risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks, which can lead to pandemics.
The framework enables the replication of a wide range of eco-epidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST incorporates empirical data from various disciplines, such as farm size, distance between farms, trading patterns, and mixing during transportation, the model accurately predicts disease risks at different points in the network. The model also incorporates biological data obtained from sampling chickens and sequencing pathogens, further enhancing its accuracy.
Unlike previous models that focused on limited settings, EPINEST takes a systemic perspective on pathogen spread throughout the entire production and distribution networks. The model has successfully simulated the dynamics of avian influenza viruses, identifying patterns of virus mixing and trading practices that contribute to the emergence of more dangerous strains.
EPINEST enables policymakers and decision-makers to target interventions effectively and assess their impact in reducing disease risks. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.
The research team includes scientists from City University of Hong Kong, University of Oxford, Royal Veterinary College, Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, The University of Queensland, and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
