Small Island Developing States Under the Threat of Global Warming

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly rising sea levels and extreme coastal events. These countries have played a crucial role in advocating for ambitious climate goals, such as keeping global warming below 1.5 °C, and have contributed to discussions on addressing the challenges of loss and damage caused by climate change. However, there is still a lack of quantitative estimation regarding the losses and damages that SIDS may face under different mitigation scenarios.

This study now published in Nature Sustainability was led by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission in collaboration with other world-leading institutions. SKLMP member Dr. Alessandro Stocchino and the other Researchers assessed the future risk of flooding in SIDS due to gradual sea-level rise and episodic sea-level extremes along their coastlines. The results indicate that if no adaptation measures are taken, climate change could amplify the economic damages from coastal flooding by over 14 times under high-emission scenarios by the end of this century. However, based on the region, limiting global warming to within 1.5°C could mitigate nearly half of the potential damages.

It does not mean that achieving this climate goal will prevent some SIDS from experiencing substantial economic losses. People may still be forced to migrate from low-lying coastal areas. The researchers emphasize the urgent need for investments in adaptation and sustainable development in SIDS, as well as providing dedicated support to developing countries in responding to climate change.

More Info.: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01230-5
 
Researchers involved in the study:
Michail Vousdoukas
Panos Athanasiou
Alessio Giardino
Lorenzo Mentaschi
Alessandro Stocchino
Robert E. Kopp
Pelayo Menendez Fernandez
Michael Beck
Roshanka Ranasinghe
Luc Feyen

Research collaborating institutions:
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
University of the Aegean
Coastal and Climate Research Ltd, Limassol, Cyprus.
Deltares 
Asian Development Bank
University of Bologna
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
State Key Laboratory of Marine Pollution
Rutgers University
University of California Santa Cruz
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
University of Melbourne