Beginning in 2008, these forecasts will be issued by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre.
These are all statistical predictions with predictors drawn from a large group of indices that represent the atmospheric and oceanographic conditions in the previous year up to the spring of the current year. The most prominent ones include the proxies for El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the extent of the subtropical ridge, and the intensity of the India-Burma trough.
activity over the western North Pacific has a
significant decreasing trend in recent years.
Our prediction scheme, which was first developed
in 1997, with an improvement in 2001, however
does not incorporate this trend and therefore
overestimated the TC activity during the last
few years. The prediction scheme is currently
under revision and we will not issue the
forecasts for the TC activity over the western
North Pacific from the 2012
|2010||April / May||June / July||Verification|
|2014||N/A||June / July||N/A|