Abstract:
The May 13, 2019 midterm elections in the Philippines will elect half of the 24-seat national Senate, all 297 members of the House of Representatives, and all local government officials. Midterm elections are usually seen as a referendum on an incumbent especially under a presidential system of government where there is a fixed term of office for national and local positions. This is in contrast with most parliamentary systems where a government can be dismissed on a vote of no confidence and fresh elections are called. The upcoming elections will also test the political strength of the country’s populist strongman president – Rodrigo R. Duterte. Despite the lack of solid party support and political machinery, the former mayor of Davao City in Mindanao, rode a wave of angry votes to capture the presidency in 2016. But unlike previous Philippine presidents, he did not personally endeavor to consolidate his political support under a dominant party. PDP-Laban, the moribund political party that supported his presidential candidacy in 2016, ballooned from a party of three elected members to more than 300 as political turncoats switched party affiliations. However, the party recently suffered a major setback as most of its members have again switched affiliation to the Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP), the regional party established by incumbent Davao city mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio. Meanwhile, the former dominant Liberal Party (LP) has been decimated with most of its members jumping to the administration parties. It was barely able to form a senatorial slate and one of its key leaders, defeated presidential candidate Mar Roxas, is running an independent senatorial campaign. Following recent works on populist politics, this presentation will delineate how Duterte has been able to eschew patronage-based political party building in favor of populist mobilization or “a strategy to build a mass of supporters to gain and retain power with the minimum of institutional intermediation” (Kenny 2017, 58). Moreover, it will provide an initial reading of the 2019 midterm elections using the lens of the 2022 presidential election.
Short bio:
Julio Cabral Teehankee is Professor of Political Science and International Studies at De La Salle University where he served as Chair of the Political Science Department (1994-2007); Chair of the International Studies Department (2008-2013); and Dean of the College of Liberal Arts (2013-2017). Currently, he is the President of the Philippine Political Science Association (PPSA). He completed his postdoctoral studies at the Graduate Schools of Law and Politics at the University of Tokyo, Japan and obtained his PhD in Development Studies from De La Salle University. He specializes in comparative politics of the Asia-Pacific, with a particular focus on issues of popular participation, governance, democratization, and contested institutions. Professor Teehankee has published extensively on the topics of elections, party politics, and political dynasties. His current research includes presidentialism in Asia; comparative constitutional dynamics in East and Southeast Asia; and party-building the Pacific Islands. He appears regularly as a political analyst for local and international media outlets.
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