Hong Kong has earned a well-deserved reputation for innovation, efficiency, dependability, and accountability in business services. This proposal seeks to leverage and extend Hong Kong’s advantage in state-of-the-art knowledge-based systems by establishing it as a centre of expertise in the management of complex network systems through advanced technology in condition-based monitoring, safety and reliability engineering, risk and revenue management, and real-time decision-making under continuous feedback and uncertainty. In this proposal we focus on applications in high-speed rail and urban train (metro) networks.
China’s high-speed rail (HSR) network marks a milestone. China has more HSR tracks than the rest of the world combined. The China Railway High-speed (CRH) series is the first and only one to have a train service on conventional rail lines that can reach 350 km/h. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s urban rail system is frequently rated the best in the world. The West Island Line that connects the western part of Hong Kong Island has recently started partial operation. By the end of 2015, there will be 87 metro lines in 25 cities in China with a total length of about 2,500km. The Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway Corporation (MTRC) has been operating several major subway lines in China and is now importing Chinese HSR technology to connect the MTR and a new HSR line linking Hong Kong with the mainland.
Like other large-scale technologies such as commercial airlines both HSR and metro have endured major tragic accidents all over the world. Fatal accidents, service disruptions and breakdowns have occurred, including the devastating 2011 Wenzhou train collision, the 2013 accidents in Spain and France, and the 2015 Washington DC metro fire. Had the latter accident occurred in a much more crowded metro system like Hong Kong or Beijing there could have been a danger of mass panic and stampede causing many more deaths. These problems are only the tip of the iceberg. These systems require constant study, vigilance, and improvements in condition monitoring, safety and reliability engineering, operation and maintenance and decision systems to prevent disasters and mitigate them if they occur.
Operation of advanced engineering systems for human use involves tradeoffs: efficiency vs. flexibility; full-capacity operation vs. tight-coupling hazard; and redundancy and frequent maintenance vs. downtimes, disruptions and costs that increase risk and inefficiency. In the area of people movement, crowd control, evacuation scenarios, and defense against human error – both unintentional and deliberate, such as terrorist acts – surveillance techniques, station and train design, demand management, and real-time analysis of data come into play.
This proposal capitalizes on our team’s unique expertise to attack issues in the safety, reliability, and efficiency of metro and HSR. We are a team of experts combining knowledge in the extremely rapidly developing interconnected fields of remote sensing and monitoring, real-time probabilistic and statistical analysis of large, high-velocity data streams, and decision-theoretic techniques for economical operation of safe and reliable engineering systems. Based on our history of working with the MTRC to develop agent-based simulations of passenger movements in crowded stations, we have established close partnerships with the MTRC as well as key developers of international HSR systems. We have consulted with them to design the proposed project and will cooperate with them to test and validate solutions.
The grand challenge of this project is to answer the following questions:
How do we ensure safe, reliable, and high-quality service for the interrelated HSR and metro systems? How do we manage unavoidable disruptions and incidents to minimize losses to commerce and society? (“Disruption” is defined as any significant departure from normal operation, such as services interruption due to critical parts failure, extreme weather conditions, etc.) How can we take advantage of China’s HSR and Hong Kong’s world-class metro systems to create business opportunities?
Our goals will be to
The expected research deliverables are as follows:
