A research paper, of which Professor ZHANG Xiaoling of the Department of Public Policy is one of the co-first authors, gets published in Nature Food, a journal affiliated to the prestigious scientific journal Nature.

While a number of previous studies have shown that global urban expansion would result in a loss of global croplands and is often being viewed as a threat to food security, this paper, titled Urbanization can benefit agricultural production with large-scale farming in China, argues that it is not necessarily the case in China if some rural land areas originally occupied for residential use could be reclaimed. Using spatial statistics and scenario analysis, the researchers show that an increase in China’s urbanisation level to 80% in 2050 would actually release 5.8 million hectares of rural land for agricultural production. Even considering the relatively lower land fertility of these new croplands, crop production in 2050 would still be 3.1–4.2% higher than in 2015. Crop yield can further be increased through better agricultural management such as irrigation, fertiliser and labour training. In addition, cropland fragmentation could be reduced with rural land release and a decrease in rural population, benefiting large-scale farming and environmental protection. Nonetheless, the researchers agree that the potential of improving crop production by releasing rural land relies on the feasibility and success of rural built-up land being reclaimed for crop production and hosting more efficient technologies and management practices, which would incur economic costs and issues in the livelihood of smallholder farmers. 

These insights into the urbanisation and food security debate have important policy implications for global regions undergoing rapid urbanisation. The researchers conclude that urbanisation and food security should be achieved at the same time to feed and settle an increasingly wealthy global population, and policies to match land and people will finally facilitate agricultural sustainability in an urbanising world.

A title of Nature, the world’s leading multidisciplinary science journal with over 150 years of history, Nature Food is an exclusively online journal publishing top-tier original research, reviews, comments and opinions on the theme of food, crossing the disciplines of food-related research in the natural, applied and social sciences. It covers a comprehensive scope, providing researchers and policy-makers with a breadth of evidence and expert narratives on optimising and securing food systems for the future.

Click here to learn more about the research.